The election occurs on November 5, and I can say with 100% certainty, either Trump or Harris will be our next president. It will be a nail biter to see who receives more than 270 electoral votes (EV’s) to win the election. Please disregard anyone who says it will be a landslide victory for either candidate!
I base my conclusions on the latest consensus map from the website, 270towin.com. Toss up states decide elections. Right now, there are seven toss ups totaling 93 EV’s. Each candidate must win a few of them to get over 270 EV’s.
Harris’ entry into the race is just now showing up on these maps. The July consensus map showed Trump had an edge, with North Carolina leaning Republican. Now, it is one of seven toss up states. Earlier maps with Biden had Arizona and Georgia leaning Republicans, now both are in the toss up category. These 3 states total 43 electoral votes. (NC = 16, GA = 16. AZ = 11).
Trump has also gained, as earlier maps had Michigan, (EV = 15) as a lean Democrat, and now it is definitely in the toss up camp. Some of these earlier maps with a Trump-Biden race had just 3 toss-up states, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Nevada.
My takeaway is that we have a more uncertain race. The polling in these seven states is just too close to call. Forecasters typically look at other data, like the mid-term elections, and demographics for some guidance.
Forecasters suggested before the Democratic convention, that Harris might receive a boost in the polls, but it would take time to complete polling surveys. I think the boost is there, but time will tell if it is just a “sugar high” or Kamala Karma playing out. I’ll leave that one to the commentators.
One election pundit had it right. “Election forecasting is an open invitation to be wrong, yet they continue to do it.” The consensus answer to the obvious question, “Who will win?” is a resounding “I don’t know.” The predictability of the 2024 election started out bad, and it has gotten worse.